![]() ![]() The authors found that as temperature increased, the number of daily shootings in Chicago also increased, and rain significantly decreased the number of firearm related injuries and crime. One prior study examined the relationship between weather and shootings in Chicago (Kieltyka et al., 2016). For example, do thunderstorms predict shootings? Or do shootings occur more often when it is warm, and high temperature increases the probability of a thunderstorm? To be able to interpret each coefficient, the complex causal structure of each variable must be considered. However, these studies were predictive rather than causal and it is not appropriate to interpret the coefficients as stand-alone factors. Most recently, investigators in Baltimore found that precipitation was associated with a decrease in violent crime, and higher temperature was associated with an increase in firearm shootings and violent crime (Michel et al., 2016). Other studies have found that as temperature increased aggression also increased (Baron & Ransberger, 1978 Anderson et al., 2000 Anderson, 1987 Kenrick & MacFarlane, 1986 Cotton, 1986 Field, 1992 Anderson, 1989). For example, a review found that weather, including temperature and precipitation, was associated with conflict in Mexico, India, Tanzania, Australia, and the Philippines (Burke et al., 2015). One way to predict when shootings will occur is by looking at weather. While there has been a substantial amount of research about the micro-locations where shootings are most likely to occur, there has been less on when shootings occur (Block & Block, 1995 Eck et al., 2005). The most affected group-young, adult, Black males- have a 1 in 200 yearly chance of being shot (Papachristos et al., 2015). For example, areas in the north, which are wealthier and more white (Wilson & Daly, 1997), have as few as 0–5 annual homicides per 10,000 citizens, while neighborhoods in the south and west side have over 35 annual homicides per 10,000 (Mirabile, 2016). Most of the gun violence in Chicago occurs in specific geographic locations and can be associated with socioeconomic factors and race. Chicago had a homicide rate of 16.4 per 10,000 citizens and a non-fatal firearm violent injury rate of 88.9 per 10,000 in 2015, respectively ranking Chicago 18th and 14th among cities in the nation (Hertz, 2014). We believe using a causal structure is useful for understanding the link between weather and shootings.Ĭhicago is often perceived as one of the most violent cities in the United States in 2016, there were over 4100 victims of gun violence, or the equivalent to one individual being shot every 2 hours (Crime in Chicago, 2018). Interventions that keep people inside, such as air-conditioning and summer programs for students, might be effective in reducing the number of shootings in Chicago. This finding is in-line with studies that have linked crime to higher temperature and also suggests that shootings may be related to when individuals are outside and more likely to encounter violence. In recent years, shootings in Chicago were more likely to happen on warm days and especially during the weekend or holidays. ![]() A 10-degree higher temperature than average was also associated with 33.8% higher rate of shootings. ![]() ResultsĪ 10-degree (☌) higher temperature was significantly associated with 34% more shootings on weekdays, and 42% more shootings on weekends or holidays. Causally-adjusted negative binomial regressions were used to evaluate the associations between the exposures of interest and daily number of shootings. Weekend, holidays, and other non-school days were also included as possible effect measure modifiers. Daily high temperature, humidity, wind speed, difference in temperature from historical average, precipitation type and amount, were extracted via The Weather Underground. The number of shootings per day was obtained via the Chicago Tribune (2012–2016). This cross-sectional study used data from 2012 to 2016 to measure the association between weather and the number of shootings in Chicago. Previous studies have linked weather to crime and aggression but have not considered the causal structure of the variables included in the model(s). ![]()
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